Blue Mediation: Toward a More Stable Middle East 

Background: 

The conflicts witnessed in the Middle East, and the destabilization of the international system due to the humanitarian violations occurring in Gaza, Sudan, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran — as well as the aggressive attack on the sister state of Qatar under the pretext of targeting Hamas leaders in Doha — call for urgent action toward establishing a unified defensive system that brings together all Arab states facing similar threats to neighboring countries. Although military action may be effective, it is not a viable solution at present due to the weakness of the Arab offensive structure and the internal divisions within Arab states. Therefore, resorting once again to diplomatic pathways is now the most appropriate solution, avoiding emotional impulses. Western governments must view the violations committed by “the only democratic state in the Middle East,” as they claim, as dangerous and requiring attention from an international security perspective. What is happening in the Middle East is merely a prelude to what will occur globally. The project envisioned by David Ben-Gurion does not stop at the borders of Arab states; it extends far beyond, and the resemblance between Israel and the Nazi state remains, reminding us how Nazism began and expanded from Eastern to Western Europe and eventually to North Africa. 

These conflicts and violations have become a threat preventing countries from investing in their resources and achieving economic stability — especially when discussing the blue economy, which is a valuable opportunity for Gulf countries and Red Sea littoral states. The security threats facing Middle Eastern states drive investors away due to economic volatility and political uncertainty. Although there are enormous investment opportunities in the Middle East — specifically in Red Sea and Arabian Gulf states in the blue economy — the region still faces the risks of political turmoil and security instability, which will undoubtedly redirect capital toward safer and more stable investments. Therefore, this paper will examine the importance of diplomacy and mediation in achieving security and stability in the Middle East, enabling Arabian Peninsula and Red Sea countries to invest in the blue economy — which is receiving significant interest from investors as an environmentally friendly and highly valuable sector, estimated at around USD 24 trillion in assets (Sultan, “The Blue Economy”). It is therefore both sustainable and profitable, making it an attractive focus for countries whose national visions seek sustainability aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals adopted by the United Nations General Assembly at its 70th session (United Nations, Resolution A/RES/70/1). 

Blue Mediation: 

Dialogue is one of the foundations upon which civilizations were built. It is also what distinguishes humans from other creatures. Animals do not understand the language of dialogue; their nature tends toward killing and violence, whereas human nature generally leans toward dialogue and avoiding conflict. This contradicts what Thomas Hobbes argued when he described humans as “evil and inclined to war” (Hobbes, 1651). In contrast, Jean-Jacques Rousseau believed that “man is born good, but society corrupts him” (Rousseau, 1755). Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized in his book *The Power of Negotiation* that dialogue is an innate human trait (Araghchi, 2025) and cited several verses from the Holy Qur’an, including: “Invite to the way of your Lord with wisdom and good instruction, and argue with them in the best manner” (Qur’an, Al-Nahl 125). This highlights the importance of dialogue and constructive debate. The Foreign Minister also noted that states resort to mediation and avoid militarization when military force becomes too costly and does not yield the desired results. Military approaches are usually adopted when there is an imbalance of power: a militarily stronger state tends to impose its conditions by force instead of engaging in a long, complex negotiation process that may not fully meet its interests.

The Iranian nuclear file is an example of this approach. Since 2008, Western states — represented by the United States and European countries — have sought to reach a settlement with Iran. The strategy pursued by the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding the nuclear file, which relies on political procrastination, provided Iran with certain security guarantees by enabling it to enhance its technical and scientific capabilities and gain more time without offering significant concessions. According to a report by Al Jazeera dated June 16, 2025, the strikes launched by Israel against Iran complicated the nuclear process and led to the suspension of talks related to IAEA guarantees, suggesting that military escalation harmed the negotiation path (Al Jazeera, “The War on Iran”). This same strategy has also been used by Israel. In negotiation processes with resistance movements — beginning with Fatah's integration into the PLO and later with Hamas — negotiations were used as political cover to refuse recognition of the Palestinian state. Matters escalated to the point of bombing Doha, the Qatari capital, and attempting to assassinate the negotiation team (WAFA, September 9, 2025). Thus, the preference for military force arises not only in the absence of power balance but also when negotiations and diplomacy are used as tools for maneuvering rather than serious means to reach a diplomatic solution. 

Although mediation and negotiation are effective, the lengthy and complicated process — especially when used for political maneuvering — hinders conflicting parties from sitting at the same table. Therefore, achieving progress toward a blue economy and environmental sustainability, while also realizing economic benefits, must take regional security into account. Military operations hinder Gulf states, Yemen, and Red Sea countries from investing in their natural resources, as capital — as mentioned earlier — does not flow into regions filled with conflict and political uncertainty. 

Building a Diplomatic Environment: 

From this perspective, adopting negotiation pathways and avoiding the use of military force — which often fails to achieve lasting political solutions — is both a legal and ethical commitment as well as a strategic necessity for Middle Eastern states with enormous potential in the blue economy. 

Attracting foreign capital requires a stable political climate and cohesive regional security — achievable only through diplomatic cooperation and avoiding armed conflicts that undermine growth opportunities. Therefore, enhancing dialogue and building a regional system based on mediation and political cooperation serves as a key starting point for transforming the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf regions from conflict zones into investment hubs, aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. 

Conclusion: 

Although the Arab public desires retaliation and the use of military force in response to the brutal attacks on the Qatari capital Doha — and despite its emotional appeal — such a response would not be rational. On the contrary, the researcher recommends establishing a regional Arab mediation mechanism, as the blue economy represents a valuable opportunity requiring cooperation among Arab governments to build a diplomatic environment conducive to investment in this vital sector. 

References: 

Thomas Hobbes, *Leviathan* (1651)

Jean-Jacques Rousseau, *Discourse on the Origin and Basis of Inequality Among Men* (1755)

Ahmed Sultan, “The Blue Economy: Concept, Challenges, and Egypt’s Progress,” Egyptian Center for Thought and Strategic Studies, 1 September 2025, https://marsad.ecss.com.eg/68873/

Al Jazeera. “The War on Iran… Did Israel Complicate America’s Calculations?” Al Jazeera Net, 16 June 2025 www.aljazeera.net/politics/2025/6/16/بين-واشنطن-وطهران-هل-حلت-الحرب

WAFA – Palestinian News & Information Agency. “Israeli Warplanes Bomb the Qatari Capital, Doha.” WAFA, 9 September 2025, www.wafa.ps/Pages/Details/129576

“Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.” UN General Assembly Resolution A/RES/70/1, 25 September 2015, https://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/RES/70/1&Lang=A